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APRIL 30,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET:

HOPE – From The Times of Israel:  "Miami-based medical technology company with an R&D subsidiary in Moshav Ora, near Jerusalem, has developed an easy, non-invasive method to detect breast cancer early on – using a simple blood test.  In its laboratories near the capital, Eventus Diagnostics (EventusDx) has developed what it describes as an accurate, cost-effective, immune system-based means of detecting the presence of cancer in the breast tissue.  The Octava tests, which measure cancer-specific antibodies produced by the immune system in response to the growth of tumors, can be used both to quickly diagnose breast cancer before tumors become visible in mammogram, as well as identify false negative and false positive mammogram results."  We do hope this is accurate.  Any cancer breakthrough is welcome news.

A FEE TO HEAR NANCY – From The Washington Times:  "University of California-Berkeley can expect to spend roughly $120,000 for a four-year degree. This year, they still must pay an extra $10 to attend their own graduation ceremony, where they will also listen to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.  Students who do not cough up the cash before Wednesday, April 30 for the campus-wide commencement ceremony have been told they will not be able to attend on May 17 at California Memorial Stadium.   '[The money is] to absorb the cost of commencement,' Lila Blanco, director of external relations and the Office of Protocol at the university, said in an interview with The Daily Californian, the school’s official newspaper, Campus Reform reported."  You'd think the university would be embarrassed, but there's no embarrassment in higher education, just "alternative narratives."

RIVALS – From London's Daily Mail:  "Russia has announced plans to build a super-heavy carrier rocket that could propel its cosmonauts to Mars.  The rocket will rival Nasa's Space Launch System (SLS) which is expected to come in two variants capable of lifting 70 and 130 tonnes into orbit.  Construction of the first stage of Russia's super-rocket - capable of lifting 80 tonnes - is already underway, according to Roscosmos chief Oleg Ostapenko."   This is another sign that Putin is engaged in a new Cold War with the United States.  The Russian space program is back.  And I doubt very much if Barack Obama even cares.

MAJOR SPORTS NEWS – With the Donald Sterling/L.A. Clippers scandal still fresh, the usual suspects are already fighting over the corpse.  From AP:  "LOS ANGELES (AP) — If Donald Sterling is compelled to sell the Los Angeles Clippers, the list of potential buyers will have more stars than the team's roster.  Oprah Winfrey leads the list of wealthy luminaries who announced their interest in purchasing the club shortly after NBA Commissioner Adam Silver banned Sterling from the league for life.  Winfrey's spokesperson confirmed Wednesday she is already in discussions with record-label mogul David Geffen and Oracle CEO Larry Ellison to pool their vast resources for a bid.  They won't be alone, either. Music mogul Sean Combs tweeted his interest in going after the Clippers, and boxing champion Floyd Mayweather Jr. wants to form a group to buy the team.  Celebrities ranging from Matt Damon to Oscar De La Hoya expressed interest in joining an ownership group."  In the end, this will be about money, not racial decency.  You may be sure that not one African-American kid will benefit from the chaos.  But lip service to "social justice" will be paid, for about a minute.

April 30,  2014     Permalink

RICK 16? – QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 8:30 A.M. ET:   I shy away from quoting Dick Morris, whose political prediction record is less than stellar.  But he just wrote a column on the prospects of Rick Perry for 2016 that I thought was particularly good.  I was at a meeting yesterday and was surprised at the amount of talk about Perry, who makes regular trips to New York these days.  From The Hill: 

That leaves Rick Perry. He’s acceptable to Latinos, based on his Texas record. He draws strong Tea Party support without being defined by it. A Southerner, he is clearly ready to play on the national stage. A big state governor, his record on jobs has only gotten better. Perry can’t be dismissed.

Will his debate brainlock disqualify him? Not if he doesn’t repeat it. Bill Clinton recovered from a disastrous 1988 convention speech. He’s probably had enough time to recover from his dismissal of Social Security as a “Ponzi scheme” in his book.

But Perry has to develop a truly national perspective to win. He can’t forever be repeating “in the state of Texas” before each line.

He needs to know more about issues other than energy. In 2012, he showed the same lack of depth and laziness in issue preparation as Sarah Palin did in 2008, but he wasn’t caught as easily because he’s a man.

In competing for the center of the Republican Party, Perry would face Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Paul Ryan.

Bush, the former Florida governor, sure doesn’t sound like he’s running. If he did, he could win. People would blanch at a Bush-Clinton race, but if the Democrats are going to nominate Hillary, the Republicans shouldn’t feel bad about tapping Jeb. But Bush sure doesn’t seem to have the heart for it.

Christie thinks we will all forgive his virtual endorsement of President Obama in the last days of the 2012 contest, but we won’t.

And he’s going to have a hard time surviving his Bridgegate and Port Authority corruption scandals.

Ryan underwhelmed in 2012 as the vice presidential candidate, only breaking even in the Biden debate, and has scarred himself by becoming the poster boy for Medicare vouchers.

Who are the other options? Ted Cruz and Rand Paul will lock up the Tea Party and the libertarian wings in the early going, but the Republican Party does not usually cotton to insurgents. Marco Rubio has the potential to move to the establishment center and compete, but he has disappointed at crucial times to date.

Scott Walker, John Kasich, Bobby Jindal, Nikki Haley and some others might emerge as national candidates. Walker, in particular, is interesting because he has been, hands down, the best Republican governor in recent years. He slew the teachers union, freed the schools, funded education, cut taxes, created jobs and survived repeated political assassination attempts. He has the courage, fiber and vision it would take.

But look through the lens of history. Republicans don’t like to take chances. They want their candidates to have served their apprenticeship as losers. The Republican voters are agoraphobic, fearful of new situations and people. It takes them a while to get used to new candidates, so those who have run once and learned their lessons have great appeal.

So keep your eye on Perry.

COMMENT:  And I think we should.  But Perry will be tested early if he decides to run.  As Morris said, he's got to know his stuff this time, and not forget his lines, as he did disastrously in 2012.  He has a great record.  But he's got to be a great candidate.

April 30,  2014     Permalink

UKRAINE CRISIS DEEPENS – AT 8:21 A.M. ET:  The tensions in Ukraine are building, not declining.   From The New York Times: 

KIEV, Ukraine — Pro-Russia militants seized more state offices in Ukraine’s troubled east on Tuesday, in apparent defiance of the latest Western sanctions announced against them and their presumed backers in the Kremlin, which also showed no sign of wilting in its worst confrontation with the West in decades.

Speaking to reporters in Belarus, President Vladimir V. Putin said he had vetoed suggestions within the Kremlin that Russia respond in kind to the latest sanctions. “The government has already proposed some steps in response, but I consider that there is no need for this,” Mr. Putin told reporters, according to the Interfax news agency. But if it continues, he said, Moscow will have to think about who works and how they work in key sectors of Russia’s economy, including energy.

Mr. Putin was in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, to attend the summit of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council — the economic bloc of former Soviet republics he started in order to try to counterbalance the draw of the European Union. Its viability without Ukraine has been called into question.

COMMENT:  Plainly, our sanctions aren't doing much damage, and Russia shows no signs of buckling.  One reason for our weakness, of course – aside from Obama's weak overall policy – is that the Europeans are reluctant to pressure Russia further.  There is a great deal of commerce involved, and there are still plenty of influential figures in Western Europe who retain a soft spot in their hearts for Communism and the Kremlin itself.

The key question is whether Russia will invade Ukraine directly, with the intention of seizing its eastern provinces, or whether the pro-Russian fighters and terrorists in Ukraine itself can tip the region toward Moscow without direct Red Army intervention.

April 30, 2014     Permalink

OBAMA ROASTED ON KEYSTONE – AT 8:14 A.M. ET:  President Obama is being severely criticized by organized labor over his procrastination about the Keystone pipeline.  Organized labor is an Obama ally, but the administration has treated the needs of labor about the way it treats our overseas allies.  From Fox:

The head of a major labor union is lambasting President Obama over the latest delay on the Keystone XL pipeline, six years after it was initially proposed.

Terry O’Sullivan, leader of the Laborers’ International Union which represents a half-million construction workers, claimed the administration's announcement on Good Friday that it was putting off a decision, possibly until after the midterms, had politics written all over it.

In a Washington Post opinion piece, he suggested that “the Obama administration grow a set of antlers or take a lesson from Popeye and eat some spinach.”

O’Sullivan has turned to various media outlets including The Wall Street Journal to voice his frustration with the pace of the Keystone process, and saying the only thing holding Obama back is courage.

Last week, the administration announced it is extending a key review period indefinitely – a move that may push off a determination on the final project until after the midterm elections.

“No one seriously believes that the administration’s nearly-dark-of-night announcement last week, on Good Friday, that the pipeline would again be delayed was anything but politically motivated,” O’Sullivan wrote in the April 25 article.

The LIU backed the Obama-Biden ticket during both White House campaigns but says, “that does not negate our right and obligation to speak out when, because of politics, the administration fails to stand up for working people and the men and women we represent.”

Republicans, as well as red-state Democrats who want the proposed Canada-to-Texas pipeline approved, slammed the administration for the delay. Some Democrats even threatened to find ways around the president to get the pipeline project approved.

Moderate Democrats, as well as labor unions, are pressing the State Department to give the thumbs-up, calling the project a jobs engine and a way to boost energy security. But environmental interests, and lawmakers allied with them, are strongly opposed -- citing its alleged impact on climate change and possible health risks.

COMMENT:  It's remarkable that labor leaders haven't caught on to the fact that these modern, "progressive" Democrats view them and their members with contempt.  These are the "flyover" people, the little people, the ones who didn't go to the right schools.  There has always been, in segments of the left, a certain contempt for those they claim to champion. 

I think Obama will eventually reject the pipeline, but will wait until after the election to do so.

April 30, 2014     Permalink

CONFIRMATION – AT 8:02 A.M. ET:  The second major poll in two days confirms that the Democrats are in trouble.  For a few weeks Dem hopes were soaring, based on a poll that now appears to have been weighted in their favor.  From WaPo: 

Democrats face serious obstacles as they look to the November elections, with President Obama’s approval rating at a new low and a majority of voters saying they prefer a Congress in Republican hands to check the president’s agenda, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Obama’s approval rating fell to 41 percent, down from 46 percent through the first three months of the year and the lowest of his presidency in Post-ABC News polls. Just 42 percent approve of his handling of the economy, 37 percent approve of how he is handling the implementation of the Affordable Care Act and 34 percent approve of his handling of the situation involving Ukraine and Russia.

Obama’s low rating could be a significant drag on Democratic candidates this fall — past elections suggest that when approval ratings are as low as Obama’s, the president’s party is almost certain to suffer at the ballot box in November.

Republicans are favored to maintain control of the House, with the focus now on whether they can take control of the Senate. One key question about November is who will vote. Turnout in midterm elections is always lower than in presidential elections, and at this point, key elements of the Republican coalition — namely white voters and older voters — say they are more certain to cast ballots this fall than are younger voters and minorities, two groups that Democrats and Obama relied on in 2008 and 2012.

COMMENT:  Again I point out that the election is six months away.  I hope all this optimism is accurate, but I'd still run as if I were 20 points behind.

April 30,  2014     Permalink

APRIL 29,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:37 P.M. ET: 

NOT STERLING – The NBA is severely punishing Donald Sterling, the owner of the L.A. Clippers, for racist remarks.  From CBS:  "NBA Commissioner Adam Silver announced Tuesday Clippers owner Donald Sterling will be suspended for life and fined $2.5 million following racist remarks he made in a recorded audio clip.  Silver spoke to the press at an 11 a.m. news conference from New York, stating he will 'do everything in my power' to force the sale of the Clippers."   Perfectly fine.  I'd like to see a little more consistency, though.  Apparently, Sterling's obnoxious behavior was well known over the years.  It's only when he was caught on tape that the truth brought him down.  In other words, the NBA was forced to act.  I'd also like to see harsher penalties for players who fall below standards in their behavior.

YOUTH TURNING FROM GOVERNMENT – From Business Insider:  "A new poll surveying young Americans' political attitudes released by Harvard University's Institute of Politics Tuesday found millennials have less trust in government than ever before.  Harvard's poll showed millennials, whom the pollsters defined as people aged 18 to 29, have lost trust in a variety of different major public institutions including the President, the military, Congress, the Supreme Court, and the federal government as a whole. Of all the institutions tracked by the poll, the President and the military lost the most trust among young Americans, with a seven point drop. Overall, the pollsters said the level of trust millennials have in 'most American institutions tested in our survey' had dropped below even 'last year’s historically low numbers.'"  I'm not surprised at the drop in the presidency.  I am surprised at the drop in trust of the military.  I'm guessing this is happening because of what young people are taught in left-wing schools.

BULLETIN:  DARYL HANNAH OPPOSES KEYSTONE PIPELINE – We're rushing this to you.  From Fox:  "Actress Daryl Hannah and FBN’s Stuart Varney got into a heated debate on Tuesday over the Keystone pipeline.  Off the bat, Hannah expressed support for President Obama’s decision to delay the final ruling on Keystone XL – but said he didn’t go far enough.  'I don’t actually think the delay was a great move. What I think would be a great move is all-out rejection,' said Hannah.  Varney, however, argued that the pipeline could help wean the United States off oil from countries like Venezuela."  I'm so sorry I missed that debate.  I would have recorded it.  If there's one person whose political opinion I value, it's Daryl Hannah.  Who is she?

STUNNING – From the Daily Beast:  "The United States has proof that the Russian government in Moscow is running a network of spies inside eastern Ukraine because the U.S. government has recordings of their conversations, Secretary of State John Kerry said in a closed-door meeting Friday."  What is stunning here is not that we're listening in on phone conversations, but that a secretary of state would acknowledge it in a way that allowed the fact to leak to the public.  It's bad practice, for it provides propaganda to enemies and allows them to change the subject from what they're doing to what we're doing.  Kerry has a kind of blundering quality about him.  Maybe he's just trying to imitate his boss.

April 29, 2014       Permalink

YEAH, REAL PROGRESS – AT 8:31 A.M. ET:  The perception that millions of Americans are less well off than they were decades ago turns out to be true.  From CNS: 

(CNSNews.com) - The real median income of American men who work full-time, year-round peaked forty years ago in 1973, according to data published by the U.S. Census Bureau.

In 1973, median earnings for men who worked full-time, year-round were $51,670 in inflation-adjusted 2012 dollars. The median earnings of men who work full-time year-round have never been that high again.

In 2012, the latest year for which the Census Bureau has published an estimate, the real median earnings of men who worked full-time, year-round was $49,398. That was $2,272—or about 4.4 percent—below the peak median earnings of $51,670 in 1973.

In 1960, the earliest year for which the Census Bureau has published this data, the median earnings for men who worked full-time, year-round were $36,420 in 2012 dollars. Between 1960 and 1973 that increased $15,250—or about 41.9 percent.

By comparison, the real median earnings of American women who work full-time year-round peaked in 2007, when women who worked full-time earned $38,872 in constant 2012 dollars. From 1960 through 2007, the real income of American women who work full-time increased $16,774 or about 76 percent. From 2007 to 2012, the real earnings of women who work full-time declined $1,081, or about 2.8 percent.

COMMENT:  You sense a real frustration in the country.  Households now need two incomes to buy what one bought in the middle of the last century.  And both men and women feel that, no matter how hard they work, they run in place. 

One of the key answers to the problem is economic growth, and we're not getting that.  To the contrary, many current policies, including stifling over-regulation, hold back growth.

What happens if Americans decide they have no stake in the future?  I don't know, but I doubt if it will be a pretty picture.  The sense of frustration is one of the biggest time bombs in America today, and little is being done to address it.

April 29, 2014       Permalink

DEMS IN TROUBLE? – AT 8:16 A.M. ET:  I added a question mark because I see great overconfidence on the part of some Republicans, who simply assume the party will make great gains in November.  And yet, polling does suggest that the Dems may not have a merry Christmas.  From National Journal: 

President Obama's approval rating remains ominously weak among the constituencies that could tip the battle for control of the Senate in November, the latest Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll has found.

Obama's overall approval, standing at just 41 percent, remains near the lowest level ever recorded in the 20 Heartland Monitor Polls since April 2009. And only one in four adults say his actions are increasing economic opportunity for people like them, also among his worst showings in the polls. His numbers are especially meager among the non-college and older whites that dominate the electorate in the seven red-leaning states where Democrats must defend Senate seats in November.

These findings are taken from the 20th quarterly Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll conducted by the Strategic Communications Practice of FTI Consulting. The full results, exploring Americans' views on how to drive social and political change, will be published next month in National Journal's magazine.

The one solace for Democrats in the new poll is that Congress is even more unpopular than the president. Just 11 percent of those surveyed said they approved of Congress's performance, while 80 percent disapproved. In the five times the Heartland Monitor has tested Congress' rating since November 2012, only last November did it score more poorly, with just 9 percent approving and 84 percent disapproving.

Generally, though, attitudes toward the incumbent president have played a bigger role than views about Congress in shaping the results of mid-term elections. And attitudes toward Obama, and the nation's direction, remain distinctly chilly.

COMMENT:  Let us be optimistic, but also remember that the election is six months away.  That's 48 lifetimes in politics.  Anything can happen between now and November, including an eruption of Republican suicidal instincts.  And there's no app for that.

April 29, 2014       Permalink

WALL STREET FOR HILLARY – AT 8:08 A.M. ET:   You'd think these birds would be smarter.  But they're only richer.  From Breitbart: 

The permanent political class and their donors think a Jeb Bush vs. Hillary Clinton battle in 2016 would be a win-win scenario, and many Republican Wall Street donors would rather have Clinton in the White House than Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) or Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY).

According to a Politico report, "the darkest secret in the big money world of the Republican coastal elite is that the most palatable alternative to a nominee such as Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas or Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky would be Clinton."

“If it turns out to be Jeb versus Hillary we would love that and either outcome would be fine,” a Wall Street donor told the publication. “We could live with either one. Jeb versus Joe Biden would also be fine. It’s Rand Paul or Ted Cruz versus someone like Elizabeth Warren that would be everybody’s worst nightmare.”

Fearing "heavy blowback," no one would go on the record in an article that tries to set the establishment narrative that Jeb Bush should get support because Hillary would have an easier road to the White House if a conservative candidate won the nomination in 2016.

Other Wall Street Republicans have said there would not be any "panic" with Hillary Clinton, while another told the outlet that "Hillary seems relatively tolerable" if Jeb Bush does not run.

Cruz, whom the permanent political class has particularly targeted, emphasizes in his speeches that the biggest divide is not between Republicans and Democrats in D.C. but between the bipartisan permanent political class and the rest of America.

COMMENT:  Pretty conventional thinking from Wall Street, where the term "self interest" has been raised to a religious status.  Of course, the country doesn't count for anything.

I'd imagine that, in Wall Street terms, the analysis is correct.  Jeb and Hillary are relatively safe.  Ted and Rand would shake things up.  Wall Street doesn't love shakers.

April 29, 2014       Permalink

OH PLEASE – AT 8:01 A.M. ET:  President Obama is trying to defend his foreign policy, which is like the captain of the Titanic trying to defend icebergs.  From AP:

MANILA, Philippines (AP) — President Barack Obama vigorously defended his foreign policy record Monday, arguing that his cautious approach to global problems has avoided the type of missteps that contributed to a ‘‘disastrous’’ decade of war for the United States.

What an insult to the men and women who fought for us in this last decade.  And, of course, Obama never mentions that we went to war only after the 9/11 attacks, which killed more Americans than died at Pearl Harbor. 

Obama’s expansive comments came at the end of a weeklong Asia trip that exposed growing White House frustration with critics who cast the president as weak and ineffectual on the world stage. The president and his advisers get particularly irked by those who seize on Obama’s decision to pull back from a military strike in Syria and link it with virtually every other foreign policy challenge, from Russia’s threatening moves in Ukraine to China’s increasing assertiveness in Asia’s territorial disputes.

‘‘Why is it that everybody is so eager to use military force after we’ve just gone through a decade of war at enormous costs to our troops and to our budget?’’ Obama said during a news conference in the Philippines.

Note the phrase "...everybody is so eager to use military force..."  I don't know of anyone who's advocated military force in Ukraine, for example.  And certainly no one is eager to go to war.  Once again Obama poses a false premise and then answers it.  Slick, not honest.

Summing up his foreign policy philosophy, Obama said it was one that ‘‘avoids errors.’’

That's the whole thing?  How about advancing the national interest?

White House advisers argue in part that Obama’s approach puts him on the side of a conflict-weary American public, some of whom voted for him in the 2008 election because of his early opposition to the Iraq war. Yet the president’s foreign policy record of late has provided plenty of fodder for his critics.

COMMENT:  It certainly has.  It's one setback after another.  And it's joined by drastic, dangerous cutbacks in national defense. 

Indeed, Obama can't legitimately point to a single major foreign-policy victory since taking office, except for the killing of bin Laden, and that would have been ordered by any president.

Question:  Does anyone think America is stronger under Obama?  No, I didn't think so.

April 29,  2014     Permalink